THE RACE

Posted at 7:24 a.m. ET

We don't have to be reminded as to where the political race is today, the day of the second presidential debate, to be held in Nashville.  Obama has opened up a lead of, perhaps, six to eight points over McCain.  Put another way, McCain has slipped back, leaving a six- to eight-point gap with Obama.  There are some new, more optimistic polls, but they are outliers.  CBS, reporting yesterday, has Obama up only three, as do the Democracy Corps and Zogby polls.  But a new NBC poll has him up six.  We'll publish tracking polls as they become available later today.

Dick Morris and his wife, Eileen McGann, have written a perceptive column that, I think, gives a good picture of where the race stands, and where it's likely to go. 

THE polls now all indicate an Obama win on Nov. 4; some even suggest a landslide. But there's a strong chance the race will tighten back up this month.

Notice the term, "a strong chance."  Not a guarantee.  Much will depend on McCain's performance, somewhat lackluster thus far, and whether the economy goes into a tailspin.

But October may see the end of Obama's surge: He's peaking too soon.

Once the Democrat is seen as the clear leader and likely winner, the spotlight will inevitably shift to him. And he may not benefit from the increased attention.

Obama didn't do well when he last emerged on top, in later Democratic primaries. The more it appeared that Hillary Clinton would lose, the more voter concerns over Obama's relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright cost him state after state in the later primaries.

Obama still beat Clinton because he'd already amassed a sufficient delegate lead earlier on. That dynamic doesn't apply in the general election.

From his mouth to you know whose ears.

The Democrat gained by standing back during the rescue-bill drama. But now voters (with a strong push from the McCain campaign) will be giving him a closer look - and some won't like what they see.

Correct.  Obama has always lost support when people look closely.  It's like having a good mechanic look at a used car.

So Obama will be in the spotlight on how he'd handle the economy and on whether he is part of the political mainstream.

Voters will still be in the mood for throwing the Republicans out of office, so Obama may not fall all the way down - but October will be no cakewalk for the Democrat.

It is up to John McCain to make Obama's life miserable.  And the first thing McCain must do, starting with the debate tonight, is to ignore the press and its opinions.  A negative editorial in The New York Times will not hurt him.  I mean, who does he think reads those things?  But a perception on the part of the public that he's a quitter, someone who refuses to fight for a victory, will kill him. 

October 7, 2008.